Assessing the Economic Consequences of Trade Wars: A Quantitative Analysis of the US-China Tariff Disputes on Global Supply Chains

Abstract

 Purpose: This study aims to assess the economic consequences of trade wars by conducting a quantitative analysis of the US-China tariff disputes on global supply chains. Study design/methodology/approach: The study utilizes a quantitative approach to analyze the impact of the US-China tariff disputes on global supply chains. It employs a comprehensive dataset of trade flows and input-output tables to model the interconnectedness of global supply chains and simulate the effects of the tariff measures. Findings: The findings reveal significant disruptions to global supply chains as a result of the US-China tariff disputes. The analysis demonstrates that the imposition of tariffs leads to increased production costs, reduced trade volumes, and supply chain reconfigurations. Moreover, the study highlights the vulnerability of countries heavily dependent on global supply chains and the potential for long-term economic damage caused by trade wars. Originality/value: This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a quantitative assessment of the economic consequences of trade wars on global supply chains. The analysis offers insights into the specific impacts of the US-China tariff disputes, highlighting the interconnectedness of global supply chains and the potential risks associated with protectionist measures. The findings provide valuable information for policymakers, businesses, and researchers to better understand the implications of trade wars and develop strategies to mitigate their negative effects on the global economy.